IWF-Kreditlinie: Was denken Marktteilnehmer?

Eine aktuelle Markteinschätzung aus Marktkreisen zum Thema Ungarn-IWF:

„The risks to letting this spiral out of control are big. Much of the ECB’s recent actions could be undone if Hungary defaults on its upcoming debt obligations. As a result, we expect that Hungary and the IMF will soon sit down at a table to discuss conditions for a new IMF loan. It should start to bring Hungarian bond yields down quickly. In fact, the market has already started to price this in the past two sessions, with bond yields coming down sharply already. From a strategic perspective therefore, picking up European equities (mainly banks), commodities, and EM currencies on weakness caused by the Hungarian crisis is favoured. 

Developments in Hungary are forcing investors to reduce exposures to other emerging markets, protecting their portfolios against the risk that contagion spreads as fast as it did during the Greek crisis. However, in our view, what the ECB did in terms of monetary loosening and money injections in December should mitigate those risks substantially. The Federal Reserve, SNB, BOE and BOJ are also helping out with easing in their respective economies that will help out in this regard. Also, in our view the IMF will soon step in and offer emergency loans to the Hungarian government. 

That said, continue to monitor developments in Hungary, especially its negotiations with the IMF. Markets are likely to turn around strongly should this be resolved and a new loan be granted. If not, all bets are off.“

Weitere Einschätzung:

The forint and the CDS where under pressure during much of last year and this year has also started in a bad mood as the EUR/HUF and CDS spreads spiked to all time high last week, 3.24 and 735 respectively. Hungary needs to refinance €4.6bn foreign debt this year but the high borrowing cost, yields around 10% on 10y government bonds puts pressure on the authorities to act. However, some good news might come this week as Hungary’s chief negotiator Tamas Fellegi is in Washington to talk with the IMF on a precautionary standby agreement. PM Orban realizes the risk of the Hungarian economy and has given Mr Fellegi mandate to accept any kind of credit line that will strengthen the country’s confidence in the market, according to Bloomberg. Hungary will release November trade balance which is expected to improve to €790mn and December Budget balance expected at -1.247bn forint.